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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still